Another trading week

Last week trades were good. My NAV (net asset value) went up 15%. The trend was clear: buy the Yen. Hehehe, how I wish all my trading weeks are like last week. What's up for this week?

Below are some trading rules, that I frequently read, to keep me in line, whatever that means.

Twenty One Simple Rules of Trading

1. Think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician.The world of fundamentalists and the world of the technician are indeed compatible, despite what the most virulent supporters of one school or the other might say. We consider it paramount no to trade until the fundamentals and the technicals’ of any trade are running in tandem; i.e. if the fundamentals are bullish and if the market is rising we shall buy. Otherwise we shall stand aside.

2. Think like a mercenary guerrilla warrior. The mercenaries’ duty is to try and fight on a winning side, so too the traders’ duty. Our job is to discern which “side” of any trade has the most merit and then deploy our forces and capital accordingly.

3. The object of trading and/or investing is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and sell higher. Understanding this rule is the first step toward “wisdom” in trading/investing not only is more lost trying to find the lows and /or the highs, but so too is most of your “psychological” trading capital squandered.

4. In Bull Markets, one can only be long.There is no mistake worse than attempting to trade against a trend. In bull markets, one can only be long, bull spread, or standing upon the sidelines watching. Under no circumstances can one be short.

5. In Bear Markets, one can only be short, bear spread or again standing upon the sidelines.

6. “Markets can remain illogical far longer than any of us can remain solvent”A. Gary Schilling – The academicians tell us that the markets are rational; we say that most of the time they are not, but instead are sent meandering about in illogical, short term trends, intent upon doing vindictive damage to our capital and to our mental well being.

7. Don’t place a Bullish Bet on a market that has lagged behind, for it has probably done so for a reason that you simply don’t yet understand. I.E. If German Marks, French Francs and Swiss Francs are rising, but the Lira is falling, sell the Lira and buy the others. Don’t expect the Lira to catch up.

8. When you think it is time to “fade” the consensus, wait… Just a little while longer.Patience is a far better virtue when considering a trade than impatience. The market will open again tomorrow. We guarantee it.

9. Always BUY the first day of a gap higher or SELL the first day of a gap lower… and then add to the trade if the gap is still open after the third day.

10. Trading runs is cycles; some good, most bad, the secret is to trade larger when things are going well, and to cut back on the unit size when things are going poorly.In “up” cycles (and it takes a while to know when one is shifting from one to the other), trade smaller and smaller and smaller until the cycle changes.

11. NEVER meet a margin call; liquidate instead… For the margin call is the market’s way of telling you that you are wrong.

12. A bad trade done only once and held can probably never take you out of the game; but a bad trade added to and added to can.. and probably will.

13. Outside reversals at new contract lows or new contract highs are powerful technical signals that should at least be respected, and probably acted upon.

14. Most complicated technical systems only lead to confusion and added expense.The wisest and most profitable traders we’ve known have always tended to gravitate toward the simpler technical systems. If they have any technical “system” at all.

15. Markets have an uncanny way of retracing 50-62% of most moves; understand that and trade accordingly.

16. A solid understanding of mass psychology is far more important than good economics… most of the time.

17. Most long-term positions were originally short-term speculations that went wrong.Avoid this “trap” at all costs, for capital is being depleted, both mentally and fiscally.

18. After All trading rules are meant to be broken from time to time.

19. Establishing an initial position in a bull market, add a second and third time on strength when the market is proving its merit.Add thereafter on corrections. The opposite obviously holds true for bear market trades.

20. Bear markets are usually more violent than bull markets, for prices fall more quickly and in a more direct manner than the prices rise.

21. With profits, it is better to be patient; with losses, impatient.

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Warning: Do not trade or do not go into Forex until you know what you are doing. 99% of traders blew their account.

Paterns 2 and Forex

I posted Patterns 1 months back. I am reposting this because while watching CNN this morning, I heard the US are selling weapons worth 5B to KSA. More to Israel, and probably more to other countries nearby. Another source is, the Asean regions, with NK, playing into the interests of the arms producing countries. Escalation in the middle east? or in Asia? It depends; let me quote again a part of Patterns 1:

One thing's is sure…..the power…..the power waned…its waning day by day. Just look at the deficit! The drop, the flop…is soon. It's unevitable….something must be done! Therefore, I foresee a massive trade in weapons in the coming months. That’s the only way. Or a higher oil price, or trouble in Asia with North Korea at the center stage.

Hehehe, escalation of the middle east war? would depend on how big the deficit would be, if it would be contained or not. How high the oil prices would be? Well the dollar is tied to the oil, and thus far; no news yet on the Iranian Oil Bourse, which I doubt would happen, as it will be viewed as against international security. So, how high? it depends on how big the deficit would be, if it would be contained or not. Will the NK situation gets worse? well, as I said (kulit mo a) it depends on how big the deficit would be, if it would be contained or not.

So...will remain dollar bull, so long as the world is in turmoil, or the Republicans holds the White House, hehehe.

Thats a very easy trading guide. Unless the Yuan is revalued which was somehow happened by 2% last week. But would a revaluation do the job? I don't think so.

Let us see.

Whats up?

Hehehe, its been a while, so what's my update?

1. Philanthropy work. My kumpare decided to be the coach of the basketball team in our village. One of my "troublesome" nephews is a member. The team members are mostly the youths in our village, it is a Junior team. It seems that, at present, they are well organized with early morning jogging occurring three times a week. I saw changes with the tambay guys in my village now that the team is around, they are more disciplined, and my nephew, in my observation, changed a lot in many ways, attitude wise. So…what's my role? Hehehe I am the financier.. "Abroad eh"…I just recently committed to shell out 8K for the season, covering their entry fee for a tournament, and uniforms, the rest of the amount kung kukulangin will be solicited from guys "somewhere else", which I volunteered to write the solicitation letter, and to print it for free from my home computer. O diba? They are now planning for a community dance party at our village plaza to launch the team…with some guys volunteering their home component for free, and some mothers volunteering to cook some food for the event…still in the works though. Lets see.

2. Business. While watching the TV, I saw an advertisement about Xerox machines for rent. I called them up, talk with the lady in charge about the details: they will provide everything, paper, ink, maintenance, etc and they charge 65 cents per copy. I can charge 1 or 1.50 per copy. The difference in the charges will be my supposed profit. It is a liquid Xerox with a reducer and enlarger. Down payment for the machine is 2T, so I decided to take 2 machines.

I am now busy renovating a small shop, in one of the best locations in the City as it is very near three schools converging right on this shop, o diba? Location, location, location daw. I asked a carpenter to make glass shelves for the school supplies, and a receiving area for customers of the copying machines. They are now in the painting stages, and putting the triple locks, and ceiling fan. The most expensive things, I bought for these renovations are the locks (3) – for me this is the most important thing, for a good reason. I am just waiting for the local electric cooperative to put the line for my electrical connections. I decided to defer the phone connection, until I am certain that this shop would be a success as I am trying to cut down costs.

My total expenses for this renovation, thus far, totaled 15T.

So this shop will sell school supplies, Xerox services, e-loads, and will bind books.

My total capital exposure for this business will be:

Renovation 15T
Electrical connections 3T
School supplies 30T
Xerox downpayment 4T
Operating expenses 5T
Monthly rental 2T

For a total of around 60T. I am not sure how long would it take me to recover my investment. I will report here what will happen to this business.

I primarily took this business because my mother has the "rights" reserve on this shop (owned by the provincial government) for the past two years, and I felt the location is underutilized. Another is I have a relative who graduated a commerce degree who can not find a job in our City, so I talked to her if she is willing to manage this business and she said yes. One of my scholars will do the weekly inventory and checking of the Xerox counter, supplies will be replenished every Saturday. Her and my scholars' salaries will be paid every Friday evening, after inventory on a percentage basis, less expense, depending on how much we have earned for the week. Weekly profits will be deposited into my account so I can track it.

3. I am visiting my farm on Thursday because my Katiwala informed me that the copra will be ready on this day….kaya ayon money on the pocket again, but then I only expect around 3 or 4T from this.

4. I am cleaning up all the land titles that I have, Deed of Sales, Mortgage contracts etc.

5. The cabs are doing fine, and I am still trading the forex, and right now I am down 8% of my NAV, hay….

I have decided to move my trip back to Saudi to August 20 (if at all)….that is why I am trying to maximize my vacation days…whatever that means.


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PS: Ang hirap talagang maningil ng mga cash na pautang….minsan feeling ko parang ayaw na nilang magbayad. Pagpinilit…wala raw pambili ng bigas. So??? Ewan ko, pero hindi na ako nagpapautang ng cash ngayon…as much as possible… unless extremely important ang paggagamitan ng pera.

STATEMENT OF REMITTANCE

In December 2003, I invested 120K for the purchase of two motor cabs for hire. The balance of 80K (200K kasi ang total cost ng two MCH) was paid for by the boundary money from the motor cabs. When I was in Saudi, my niece would email me the statement of remittances/income for every investments that I have, and for the motor cabs, below was the May remittances:

MONTH OF MAY

05-01-06 280.00
05-02-06 90.00
05-03-06 320.00
05-04-06 CODING
05-05-06 430.00
05-06-06 580.00
05-07-06 430.00
05-08-06 580.00
05-09-06 430.00
05-10-06 430.00
05-11-06 CODING
05-12-06 walang biyahe, may bagyo
05-13-06 354.00
05-14-06 45.00
05-15-06 580.00
05-16-06 580.00
05-17-06 580.00
05-18-06 CODING
05-19-06 580.00
05-20-06 441.00
05-21-06 530.00
05-22-06 580.00
05-23-06 580.00
05-24-06 300.00
05-25-06 CODING
05-26-06 152.00
05-27-06 580.00
05-28-06 580.00
05-29-06 580.00
05-30-06 580.00
05-31-06 510.00
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11,702.00 TOTAL CASH REMITTANCE


EXPENSES FOR THE MAINTENANCE

05-02-06 490.00 cyclone tire (tmx red front tire)
05-03-06 260.00 2L oil (tmx red and blue)
05-13-06 266.00 oil (tmx red and blue)
05-14-06 515.00 tire jumbo (tmx blue back wheel)
05-14-06 20.00 labor
05-20-06 84.00 kuyo, grease (tmx red)
55.00 spraket (tmx red)
05-26-06 212.00 breakshoe, koyo, grease (tmx red)
25.00 dagdag oil (tmx blue)
35.00 vulcanizing
05-31-06 70.00 m. bond, gasket (tmx red)
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2,032.00 TOTAL EXPENSES FOR THE MAINTENANCE

In my earlier entries, I said the cabs are giving me 600, that is true, the missing 20 is deducted daily because it is the honoraria of the person managing the cabs. I bought these cabs so I can provide jobs to my relatives - para hindi hingi ng hingi, and at the same time, for me to earn money as well, o diba? I actually do not know the details much, I do not even know what kuyo is? hehehe, but who cares?

I have since then recovered my investments, and the cabs, being well maintained are expected to last 8 more years. Right now, my net is around 9K a month, or 108K a year. Thats good money. Apart from providing jobs to four people.

Towels

Is it universal?

On the news (from PDI):

The All England Club, where the Grand Slam tournament takes place, confirmed that half of the 5,000 towels made available to players each year were not returned -- at a value of around 60,000 pounds (111,000 dollars).

Triple champion Roger Federer, who has earned 13 million pounds (24 million dollars) in his career admitted that he occasionally takes home the towels, which sell for 24 pounds (44 dollars) in the official shops.

"I do take a few," the Swiss star admitted.

"I have a big collection, stacked up back home. It's a good gift. We only get them on the courts and not in the locker room. I guess that's why, if they would give them away in the locker room too, there would be none left very quickly."

Organizers were alerted to the problem of the disappearing towels when America's world number one doubles team Bob and Mike Bryan detailed their exploits on their blog.

Bob wrote: "These towels have been a long tradition at Wimbledon and players make a habit of stealing as many as they can get their hands on. They make great gifts.

"For every match there are two new towels on your chair. When the match finishes, the ball boys try to snatch them from you, but if you shove them deep in your bag and run, they're yours.

"I played two mixed doubles matches today... I was two for two with the matches, but more importantly, I was four for four with the towels."

I remember many years back, I attended a seminar in one of the finest Hotels in Cebu, and the towels were really really good. I put one, really deep inside in my bag, and the feeling of stealing something was bugging me for several hours, afraid I would be discovered, hehehe. So during the check out time, I was the one most in a hurry of going; if discovered how shameful would it be on my part - taking a towel costing a hundred or two. The worst thing, if discovered, was that I was part of the organizing committee of the seminar, and I don't how would my expat Boss would react? hehehe. Would I be fired on the spot.

Days after, everytime I looked at the towel, I would feel guilty, hehehe. It is served as a badge, a material evidence how naughty I can be sometimes - and so I decided to give it away.

From then on, although it is a struggle, I have always been successful in leaving behind towels. I have not stolen one for many many years now.

But the urge is still there

Bilog ang mundo

Before my first trip to Saudi I was in debt of 10T, panggastos sa pag-aabroad. No properties or investments in my name. Now – positive na, hehehe. My Saudi stint started way back in March 2003, which lasted until December 2003. I was jobless from December 2003 until October 2004, and so I returned to Saudi in November 2004, and work until September 2005, went back again in November 2005, until May 2006. I am now on vacation….and deciding what to do. Babalik pa ba, o hindi na?

My goal was sustainability, that is, to keep my hard earned money, and make it work for me. Thus far, I have reached my basic goals.

Farmers loan program. By next cropping, I expect to receive interest of the loan I granted to farmers as follows:

Boy – 100K – 80 sacks
Jessie – 40K – 32 sacks
Ati – 82K – 65 sacks
Eddie – 30K – 24 sacks
Eyet – 15K – 12 sacks
Gina _ 15K – 12 sacks
Com – 10K – 8 sacks
Dyor – rent – 10 sacks
Josephine – rent – 20 sacks

For a total of 263 sacks of palay per cropping or 526 sacks per year. A sack of palay can be sold for 320 pesos per sack so I am expecting an interest of 170K per year. My next goal is to construct a bodega so I can stock the palay and mill them to rice…this way I would double my profits. My budget for a small bodega is 150 to 200 K, pero worried ako – I do not want to sink this big amount into an infra. Kaya pag-iisipan ko talaga.

The coconut lands I bought during my first trip to Saudi is giving me an income of 3000 to 3500 pesos every two months, apart from the vegetables, fruits, and wild chicken which are not accounted in cash. My sharing system is 50% less expenses. So the farm is actually providing and income of around 10T every two months but my share is only 3 to 3.5K.

The two MCH (Motor Cab for Hire) is providing me an income of 600 pesos a day. I wanted to increase this to maybe 3 or 4, but my niece who is in-charge of the motor cabs told me that the City government would only allow 2 MCH per person, I can use a dummy, that is, name the new MCH I plan to acquire to somebody else, but he is worried that it might be difficult to maintain and manage, so OK na lang sa dalawa.

I purchased residential lots in the City, thus far I have four. I will acquire, an additional lot tomorrow, this time it is a beach front property of a new resort that is being developed here making all my lot 5. I plan to build a small cottage, and swim every morning…or probably go fishing when I get old...sana. My other three contiguous lots, is walking distance to this beach front lot, while the other one is very near to a college where I plan to put up a boarding house.

I have a big amount loaned as cash to some people – kaso ang hirap pa lang maningil. Iikot ako bukas para maningil, hehe.

And I have around 200K lying in the bank, and around 70K in pesos in my forex trading account.

The coop bank where the boundary money and the palay – interest I receive from the summer cropping has 60K, less expenses of my scholars, some house repairs, and house bills such as electricity, water and phone bills, that's the net amount they have saved and earned out of my investments while I was in KSA.

Ang mga punong kahoy that I planted are now around 6 feet tall – o diba? Mapapakinabanngan ko rin ito, 10 or 20 years from now. Narra trees are good money, I guess.

So palagay ko babalik pa rin ako sa Saudi for a year na lang talaga. I have to earn money for:

car or truck (200K)
bodega construction (200K), good for 1000 sacks of palay.
boarding house construction (200K) made of wood and concrete.
beach house construction (150K, native beach house).

Yan na lang talaga. Promise, hehehe. Pero pag iisipan ko pa rin, mahirap kasi harapin ang lungkot ng buhay sa disyerto. Savings of 50K a month, I would need to work for 12 more months – tiis.

I am also planning to clean up the land titles that I have in case I need them as bank guarantee for a big bank loan that I am planning - as capital for a bigger business I am planning to go into, after a year more of Saudi stint. Ano yon…ewan…but something related to what I am doing now.

Let us see.

PS: Last year I told myself, last na talaga at hindi na ako babalik. But now, babalik pa rin kaya? Hay…..buhay…..ang hirap.

Pantas Project Philippines

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In pursuit of this, P3 will operate and maintain a digital resource center where Elibraries on every field of human endeavor shall be freely available to all Filipinos regardless of age, sex, creed or location. As a non-profit venture, P3 will rely on the goodwill of sponsors and donors, and will work closely with organizations pursuing any or all of its assigned goals.

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To visit their site, here is the link: http://www.pantas.ph/nephs.html

Ano Balita (2)?

Being on vacation is tiring to both my bladder and my pocket, not to mention the rest of my vital organs such as kidneys, lapay, etc. hehehe. I have been drinking too much, almost everyday, a couple of beer, or a gallon of coconut wine. I find it hard to avoid or refuse because of the fiestas, etc. And when I have visitors, one form of entertaining them is by serving them drinks, since I am suppose to be "abroad" e..dapat sosyal ang inumin…beer. I live in an island in the central Philippines, and in my part of the Philippines, ang magpainom ng beer dito ay sosyal, hehehe.

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I have been fx trading for the past two weeks, and thus far I am still at break even, although I earned around 100 dollars for 1 hour of trading a few minutes ago from the fall of US/Yen. I will continue doing this, until I maintained an earning at least 1000 or more a month, an amount that is more than enough for me to survive. The downside of this kind of work is that I can't take my eyes off from my computer monitor…watching every currency that moves, so I can join the prey to scalp a few pips (a few dollars). This kind of business is like trading the news and forecasts, good news is good money, and bad news is also good money.

For the purpose of trading, I just had a DSL connection to my house, kaya ayon, I am connected to the net 24/7. The connection is good, and so far I have no complaints.

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I just bought three more residential lots in the City, it’s a cheap lot, and down payment is 15T which includes titling, surveying, etc. and a payment of 271 pesos a month over twenty five years. 271 pesos is even cheaper than a cell phone load, or a couple of bottles of beer – kaya ayon kinuha ko na – tatlo….sabi ko sa sarili ko, investment….hehehe.

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I added 250K to my farmers loan program, the feedback is nakakatulong daw ako sa mga magsasaka, hehehe. Nakakatulong ? mabuti kong ganoon, ang importante ay nagbabayad sila, diba hehehe. The mode of payment is 80 sacks of palay per cropping per 100K loan, or 180 sacks of palay per year. A sack of palay can be sold for 330 to 350 pesos….so magkakalaman ang bulsa ko. The downside is, baka hindi magbayad – aray! Pero , hilo…hehehe, wais 2….the land they till are the guarantee to the loans, so palagay ko safe pa rin.

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I have a return ticket to KSA, and an exit reentry Visa. Babalik pa ba ako? Ewan ko. My fx trading results, until my departure date, will decide. If indeed I become profitable, baka hindi na…..total kikitain ko naman dito ang kikitain ko dyan, diba? Pero ayoko kong mag padalos dalos….kaya pagiisipan ko talaga ng malaliman.hehehe.