(No) Recession in the Philippines - II

My previous post says: No Recession in the Philippines. I said in that post that maybe the recession will come next month or next next month. Or not at all.

So I scanned the news, and here's what I (choose) get:

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Deutsche Bank is seeing net inflows into its Asian mutual funds, a sign that investors are becoming more optimistic about Asia’s prospects after staying away for much of the fourth quarter of 2008.

The improvement in investor sentiment appeared to be across-the-board, with fund distributors in Singapore reporting a slight pick-up in fund sales for January, said the bank’s head of retail distribution for Singapore, Hui-jian Koh.

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Impact of reduced remittances, if there would be any, would be known in a few months.

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Business Processing Association of the Philippines, saying that outsourcing will create 100,000 more new jobs this year in the Philippines. Revenues for this industry hit $6.5 billion in 2008, with a 2009 expected growth rate of 20 percent. That would put revenues to the Philippines to nearly $8 billion, about one-half of total overseas remittances. And I think the estimates are wrong. I think the industry is going to grow at closer to 30 percent this year and that revenues are going to be closer to $9 billion.

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Seventy percent of companies in the Philippines are currently hiring at the managerial or professional level, Antal International said, citing results of its poll entitled “Global Snapshot."

Companies planning to hire managers are expected to rise to 76 percent, compared to the 10 percent which intend to cut its staff, and the three percent which are currently laying off workers.

“So far the employment market in the Philippines appears to be relatively robust with current levels of hiring at professional and managerial level at a high 70 percent and expected to rise to 76 percent over the coming quarter. Firing levels are currently low although organizations expect them to rise slightly during the early part of 2009," Antal said.

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Nearly 2000 companies operating inside Philippine economic zones have hired more employees last year, the government said.

The employment rate in the zones even went up by 2.5 percent in 2008, the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) said in a statement.

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Philippine inflation fell to 7.1 percent in January, the lowest level in 10 months, on lower food and fuel prices. The central bank, anticipating the decline, had cut its key interest rates twice over the past two months to loosen credit and stimulate economic activity.

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Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) officials ruled out the possibility that remittances would decline this year but admitted that inflows would not increase for the first time since the country started deploying workers abroad.

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In my assessment, the situation is not bad at all. I think there will be surprises in store for the country this year.

Let's wait and see.

No Recession in the Philippines

Or is has not come yet. It is February 2009 now. So it must be here.

But in the City where I live, I am not sure.

A Gaisano Mall opened last December and remained packed with shoppers as of today. A call center just opened last December, and they are hiring. Another mall - the biggest in the City with 3 movie theaters on it (Robinsons Mall) is set to open in a big way in March and is hiring. Construction in many parts of the province is on-going.

Two of my jobless neighbors just got jobs two weeks ago. My drivers are happy that they earn more today than last year because gasoline is in the 30's per liter compared to 60's sometime last year.

And with the rains coming well this January and February - may katiwala, believes we will have a bountiful harvests of Palay come April.

No banks has defaulted. Credit is flowing well. A neighbor just got a loan for 300K from DBP this week.

Yes, I watched the news saying there is a recession. But businesses here are small and mostly caters domestic demand. So there is no firing that I have heard of, thus far.

Or maybe the recession will come next month or next next month.

Or not at all.

Is 2009 a good investment year?

Is it time to invest? We know there is a crisis going on, and the question in our minds is when is the best time to invest?

Actually, every time is a good time. For example when mall tycoon Henry Sy, started his mall business via the SM North EDSA mall in 1983, the Philippines was in turmoil politically and economically – many thought that the period was not good. But today he is the country’s richest, and he got numerous malls all over the country.

So when is best time to buy stocks? When is the best time for you? When the DOW recovers to 9000 or when it gets down to 6000?

I know the crisis is not over yet. It is right now unfolding in front of our daily lives. Read this: Nissan to Cut 20,000 Jobs, Japan’s best-known companies, including Toyota, Sony, Hitachi, NEC, Hitachi and Panasonic announced sharp earnings revisions and job cuts. Where is the Dow now?

If you have money to spare, and you are a risk taker, I’d say..I would start buying stocks now in increments and on whatever direction the Dow gets into, that is, if you are investing for the long haul. I am certain; the value of the stocks that you will buy today would be much higher, 3 or 5 years from now.

However, it is prudent to follow this advice (taken from Inquirer.net).

To maximize your market investments, heed these tips:

1. Get into investments you know and understand. Study all investment options carefully before plunking down your money.

2. Deal only with reputable agents/banks/financial institutions.

3. Determine your investment persona, which is based on your appetite for risk. If you are conservative, make the bulk of your investment pot in more conservative instruments. If you are willing to take on more risks, you can put more money in riskier investments.

4. Make sure you have an emergency fund first. This should be at least 6 months' worth of your expenses. This will be your safety net. Over this amount, invest.

5. Diversify your investments. Don't put all your money in one type of asset class (stocks alone, for instance) or one type of currency. With this, if one asset class is down, the others can still earn for you.

If you are serious about investing, take time to talk to an investment specialist.

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PS: I am not a pro, ask guidance somewhere else. Trade at your own risk.

Crisis: How Your Business Will Survive

2009 is now a different world. Five years ago, none of my neighbors were connected to the internet. Today everyone is connected, and most do their business, check information, and shop through the web. Everyone and everything, it seems to me, has to be on the web.

Because of this, advertising has also evolved over the past few years. No wonder Google and others are now among the top companies in the world. We know that the world is now in crisis, and what will make a business survive or perish will largely be determined by the way we advertise our products to the world. You have to advertise on the internet to survive – no doubts about it. But there are tons of ways to advertise on the internet and only a few of them are cost effective, and guaranteed to provide you with a targeted traffic. What are these methods? One of them is blog advertising. You have to advertise on blogs to get targeted traffic. How do this work? Bloggers will review, comment, and write original content about your products using targeted keywords that you have specified. And they are going to post these reviews on their trusted, aged, and high PR websites. There is no better way to advertise on the internet than this method, except of course, by way of using adwords through Google. So, where do we go if we want to advertise on blogs? Visit www.payingpost.com and good luck.

Is the $827 billion economic stimulus bill enough?

Japan during her recession spent around 3 trillion dollars and was not very successful. So, is the $827 billion economic stimulus bill enough to get US out of recession? You're guess is as good as mine. Yup, the US economy is way bigger than Japan.

More is needed I guess. So don't be comfortable with it.

The Dow Jones closed above the 10 day moving average last Friday, but remember that on January 29 the Dow gave back all of its gains. If it is going to do the same next week, will find out.

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On a different story, GMA seems to have been denied, not once but thrice, I guess, in meeting or at least talking with BO.

Masakit kya yon sa ego nya?

Well she settled for the next best thing: GMA met Obama’s erstwhile Democratic rival, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, on Friday in Washington, D.C., a day after she made an unscheduled visit to the US capital to attend the National Prayer Breakfast.

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Are honorary doctorate degrees open now to Boxers? If it is a PhD in Sports, that's great. Cebu’s Southwestern University (SWU) has decided to confer an honorary doctorate on boxing champion Manny Pacquiao on Feb. 18, but at least two educators there resisted the idea.

Blue Nile Diamond

Valentines Day is just a few days away. I am sure your loved one is worth more than the money you have earned the past years. Maybe you’re planning to surprise her this year, thinking of not just the usual bouquet of flowers, or movie or dinner in one of the finest restaurant in town. Why not surprise her with Diamonds? Diamond is the perfect way to show her how much you loved her for the years you’ve been together. It is also the great way to tell her that “alright lets get on with it”; I am ready.

I know it is quite difficult to choose a diamond. But do not worry; there is a smarter way to buy diamond. Visit Blue Nile, they have the best quality of all types of Engagement Rings and offers the highest quality diamonds and only the finest grades of platinum and gold. Blue Nile also offers the lowest diamond prices in the industry - 20 to 40% below traditional retail. Indeed, getting your diamond from them is a smart choice. Blue Nile provides the education and guidance to help consumers make an informed jewelry purchase. Their site offers extensive diamond education and their expertly-trained diamond and jewelry consultants offer no-pressure advice and guidance. A great thing with Blue Nile is that all orders are shipped via free FedEx and each order is backed by a 30-day no questions asked return policy. So what are you waiting for?

Are you searching for a web hosting company?

Alright, its internet age now; and every company or everyone is supposed to have a website. Having your own website makes lot of sense because the primary way to access your product and the best way to market your product world wide is through the internet. I, for one, check and use the internet for almost anything that I need to buy, information that I need to know, to get feedback, and to send messages via email among other important things that I do on a daily basis. So, have you gotten your domain name, and now is looking for a web hosting company? Let me tell you that there are tons of web hosting companies out there. What you should be looking for is a web hosting company with a great support service, has a great price which means affordable, and importantly, a web hosting company that is reliable which means, your site is up and accessible 24/7. So, how do we start to seek for this ideal webhosting company? We can start checking forums, and start searching for feedbacks which among the many website hosting company out there would suit your needs. One of the companies out there is Webhostinggeeks.com, this company gives one of the best service to their customers and the rates that they offer are not expensive, so check them out.

Trading Tips for February 2009

Before you jump in, read this post.

As of February 5, 2009

Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) Close - 8063.07 Up 106.41
Nasdaq Stock Market Close - 1546.24 Up 31.19
S&P 500 Close - 845.80 Up 13.57

The stock market opened weak and then surged on word of a stimulus package vote today. So, is hope in the market now back? We don't now. Will it still go down to 6,000; we don't know.

What can you do?

What will I do is, if I have 1K now (hypothetically), I will divide it to 20, the top being 20% less than the second, and the 20th being the largest- the base, if you know what I mean.

Place buy order now on blue chips using the least and top most amount. And buy every 100 fall of the Dow, using the second, and the third amount and so on until I invested the base when the market is down to 6000 - if it ever does.

I think there is no way for it to go but up - sooner than later.

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PS: I am not a pro, ask guidance somewhere else. Trade at your own risk.

Green Passports are valid until they expire

This is according to DFA.

The green passports issued by the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) are still valid until their date of expiration, Assistant Secretary for Consular Affairs Domingo Lucenario said.

But why inconvenience yourself at airports when you can get a computer readable passport?

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), mandates that all countries must issue machine-readable passports by April 1, 2010.

Just get a new one.