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The Philippines Must Jump

This is a sequel to my earlier post.

On the news today from NYTimes:

“With the relative decline in U.S. economic and financial power, it is inevitable that U.S. leadership will also decline,” said Yasuhisa Shiozaki, a former chief cabinet secretary. “We are seeing a new, multipolar economic regime starting to emerge.”

Mr. Shiozaki and others are careful to point out that no one is talking about replacing Washington as guardian of the global economy. Rather, what they envision is a world where America shares oversight of the global economy with emerging powers like China and India, as well as Europe and Japan.

The link to the news is here.

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All it is saying is that a new economic order is shaping up.

And on what and why the Philippines should jump?

I read Reyna Elenas' post about the archaic banking system of the Philippines. This simply implies that:

1. Deposits of Pinoys overseas worth, probably, several tens of billions of dollars can be taken advantage of, if and when, our banking system gets wired internationally, i.e. accept deposits, withdrawals, and other banking services similarly offered by other international banks. The Queen can't even pay his Condo payments via the internet through BPI - which means she can't probably deposit, withdraw, much less pay transactions using his Philippine based bank accounts while in the US.

So, many OFWs maintain deposits in overseas banks and in countries where they live and work simply because our Banks are not apt to it.

2. With relatively high interest rates the Philippine banks offers to depositors vs the Japanese banks that offers almost 0% interest rates, similar to banks in the Middle East... I would deposit my money in a Philippine bank which would give me at least 3 to 5% interest. Some rural banks even offers double your money in 5 years! But our banks are archaic, they are not apt to it - thus missing a huge resource of depositors out their for grabs.

So, if you are a Japanese or an Arab, would you deposit your 25K dollars, now that it is insured for 1 million pesos in a Philippine Bank? I, probably would, if and only if, I can access the money anytime, anywhere like a VISA card does.

So, why don't the Philippines banks offer international banking services, and attract an international base of clients? I don't know.

Sadly, as Reyna Elena noted, our banks are "archaic", whatever that means. That's probably why.

Banks are collapsing in many countries in US and Europe, maybe it is about time that our banks fill, at least 0.05% of the void? Can we?

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No wonder De Lapaz was carrying cash to Russia instead of a card or check book.

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Sleep and sleep and wait for progress, ehehehehe.

After the crisis, what?

Of course, recovery.

Certainly,

1. The stock market will zoom northwards, next year... There is nowhere else to go. Many of the declines during this crisis were somewhat "unjustified". When exactly? I don't know.

2. Consolidation and strengthening of financial institutions, and easier flow of money to developing countries will happen. More regulations will be put in place; and more collaborations between and among Central Bankers around the globe will be common.

3. Investments in assets will be more diversified (move out of the US), than the previous decade i.e. largely concentrated in the US, and largely in US financial institutions. Diversification will be more common, and will become the norm....i.e. moving to Asia, or Europe or Middle East assets and financial institutions.

So?

Ride it out. Do not worry much.

The Obama Presidency

Got yah! This post is not about Obama Presidency, but something else related.

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America has no choice but to make sure Obama wins in November.

Because if he wont, the US will have serious economic problems that would make the current week 's tumble of the stock market peanuts. Imagine a huge capital flight (possibly trillions) in 2009, 20 to 30% inflation weekly, printing of thousand dollars bills becoming common, and a Zimbabwe like environment inflation-wise, hehehe. Common, I am just exaggerating, but who knows?

Unemployment rising, wages going down, so...taxes going down...and soon and so forth. And how much money does the government need to pay its debts? It's not going to be drill...baby...drill, but print...baby..print. The worst situation of all.

McCain/Palin, anyone? hehehe.

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Alright, in my previous post, I said:

The recent press conference of Gordon Brown seems to me that the UK is printing pounds - non-stop! Trader's watch out.

So? Cable tumbled last Friday, and I expect a not so unusual inflation in the UK, and EU in the coming weeks and months. And the US, of course. So? tread carefully.

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Alright, all deposits are now guaranteed everywhere. Yup...guaranteed, until a/the bank failed, and....

Sorry you're money is locked up.. will deal with it sometime next year. Ahh..here is how we are going to do it....you get 10% of your deposit every year for the next ten years without interest, hahahaha. Calm down. What does the tiny prints says about payouts? How many years was it? Was there a cap?

OK, don't panic, I am just scaring you...but who knows? The FDIC's fund currently has about $45 billion, a five-year low. We can never tell. Nyehehe.

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Will it be over soon? I dunno.....what does CNN have to say?

SAN FRANCISCO, California (AP) -- Here's a safe bet for uncertain times: A lot of banks won't survive the next year of upheaval despite the U.S. government's $700 billion rescue plan to restore order to the financial industry. Here is the link.

What can the Philippines do?

The world banking system is near collapse. Stock markets all over the world fell horribly, that Russia, Indonesia, and Argentina suspended trading today. Japan fell 10% and HK fell around 9%. Wha....the Philippines by around 4.8%.

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Consumers are not spending in many countries of the world. Recession is widely anticipated - that could lead to firing, and job losses weeks and months from now. Banks are tumbling, not only in Iceland, where the country is about to declare bankruptcy, but across Europe, and soon Asia (particularly Singapore, Hongkong, and Korea).

We have not seen the worst yet.

What if McCain/Palin won in November? hehehehe.

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So what can the Philippines do?

The Philippines can easily let the Peso slide to 55 per dollar to spur consumer spending from OFW families (10 million of them).

Expected job losses would not be very high, even in the electronics industry, provided salaries are controlled - by way of controlling inflation - strictly and seriously. I repeat, all the government have to do is control inflation. And stop wasting precious forex by defending the Peso.

Local industries dependent on exports, should focus a huge chunk of their production to the domestic market and Asia in the next year or two.

We will survive with little scratches, I hope.

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The recent press conference of Gordon Brown seems to me that the UK is printing pounds - non-stop!

Trader's watch out.

Watch out Philippines

Of the more than 14B dollars remitted by OFWs in 2007, around 7.5B dollars (50%) came from the USA. So?

On the news today:

The amount of money sent home monthly by Mexicans living in the United States dropped to its lowest level on record in August, Mexico's central bank reported Wednesday. Mexicans sent home $1.9 billion in August, a more than 12 percent drop compared with the same month last year.

A drop of 20% is expected for the year 2008.

The prolonged deceleration of economic activity in the United States has adversely affected the opportunities for employment in that country and, consequently, those of the Mexican migrants.

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Would remittances from OFWs in the USA suffer the same fate? What about remittances from Italy or Europe? Do you have any doubts we are going to be an exception? hehehe.

And our government just announced that they are expecting a deficit of over 1 billion dollars this year, and is planning to go to the debt market to cover the deficit, hehehe. Good timing, indeed.

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So? Do you smell something out of the Peso exchange rates by December? And next year, what?

All bets are off for now.

There is a hole

There is a ship in the hole (hehehe), what I really mean is there is a big hole in the biggest ship called USA and its located on Wall Street. People in the upper deck are still debating whether to plug the hole or not. The ships captain has commanded, "let's plug it, asap" but the crew were not listening. Why? You're guess is as good as mine.

Every minute in a day, the water volume is rising - but people are not worrying that much because the ship is too big. But as the water rises, it is and will be getting difficult to plug - a rush of water is just a matter of time. Tilting of the big ship is just a matter of time.

Buffett to Invest $3 Billion in G.E. (I hope this hole got plugged.)

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On the other side of the ocean. The ship nearby called EU already got cracks. Looked at these:

Fortis
Dexia
Glitnir
Bradford & Bingley
UniCredit ( HypoVereinsbank of Germany and Bank Austria)
etc.

But the crew on the EU ship are better at plugging holes, but they can only plug holes too many.

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Our's is just a boat - a bangka. Our bangka is tied, somewhat, to both of these ships. With huge waves, the bangka can turn over - literally - but then, as most fisherman know - a quick push and pull with strong force can easily drain the bangka of water. But because it is loaded - a few too many can drown.

What a horrible scenario.

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Soon we will be watching a true to life movie titled : Global Depression - coming soon to theaters near you.