Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Warning: Below 45 to the dollar is not advisable

If you have been tracking this blog for the past year, or since the peso dollar exchange rate was 55 to the dollar - you would realize that my predictions, thus far have reached its max. I have said here, again and again, for the past 16 months that the peso would breach or reach 45:1. Now its there.

So? Reject any call or idea that the peso would stand below 45. It would not stand below 45 because it would be devastating to the economy, to our OFWs, to our exporters. And it should be the range that the central bank of the Philippines should try to maintain.Therefore, they would, rather should intervene in the market. Below 45 is no longer rational, but emotional. Remember, the US dollar is currently oversold.

45:1 is the real value of the peso. It is not oversold, or whatever. Any lows beyond 45 would call for a correction.

So? Trade accordingly. And never, never bite the current trend.


On the news:

MANILA, Philippines -- Standard Chartered Bank expects the peso to strengthen further to about 44 to the dollar, given what it calls a “good” election turnout and a “frothing” domestic economy, bank chief executive Eugene Ellis told the Inquirer.

If the above 44 rate happens as predicted by Standard Chartered Bank; my advise would be: buy euros or dollars or yen. Get out from any Asean currency, especially the Peso. Yeah....the peso could even go al low as 40 or even 39 - but trading it to these levels is extremely risky.