Saturday, December 08, 2012

How will 2050 Philippines would look like?

Skyline of the City of Manila, seen from the C...
Skyline of the City of Manila, seen from the Cultural Center of the Philippines (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
It is going to be 2013 in a few days. A super typhoon “Pablo” just ravaged Mindanao and parts of the Visayas.  The super typhoon was unusual as it formed below the equator.  Almost everyone agrees that something is wrong with the weather, and almost everyone, as well, is pointing climate change as the culprit.  Climate change is due to global warming from massive amounts of CO2 on the atmosphere from human activities ie use of fossil fuels and other carbon based energy sources.

Today, UN climate negotiators in Doha, Qatar are in deadlocked on the issue of money for poorer countries' efforts to adapt to a warming world in the next few years. The talks in Qatar  are also meant to extend the life of the Kyoto Protocol, the world's only binding pact on curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Barring renewal, it expires on December 31. The Kyoto deal binds developed nations to emissions curbs, but excludes major developing polluters, such as China and India -- as well as the US which refused to ratify it.

Look at earth now, the trees, the weather, the animals, the fishes, the reefs, the rainforests, the snow and ice, etc. etc.; as they may not be the same in 2050.

So, how will 2050 Philippines would look like? 

Here are some data we have gathered from various sources. We will update this post when more data becomes available, and when the blog author has more time to do online research.

  • Experts say temperatures could rise by 5 degrees Celsius. On April 29, 2012 the temperature in Manila was recorded at 37 Celsius high and 26 Celsius low – so it’s probably going to be 42 Celsius high by 2050. Now, I wonder how hot 42 Celsius is?
  • Will super typhoons be common place in the Philippines by 2050? Many say yes.
  • Philippine population is expected to reach 154 million from the current 100 million. Let us hope Metro Manila will not be twice as crowded as it is now, but experts say it is going to be thrice as crowded as it is now.
  • HSBC is predicting Philippines will become the 16th largest economy by 2050.
  • A huge chunk of Metro Manila including Malabon, Navotas, Marikina and other parts will be perennially underwater, and this includes huge swaths of Pampanga. Several small islands will disappear; the 7100 islands will lose a thousand islands, more or less.  
  • Philippine forests will be reduced by half, so are mangrove areas. Flash floods and landslide will be common place; coupled with more intense rains than they are now.
  • Fish sizes will be smaller by 25% by 2050. Most of the coral reefs in the Philippines will disappear due to coral bleaching.  So, go and dive and take photos of those reefs now.
Disclaimer: These are just predictions, sources are provided as links on the post when available, and otherwise, parts that have no link sources are predictions by the blog author.  You can freely ad your predictions by commenting, and if it has link sources in it, then it will be added on this blog post when it is updated.

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