Thursday, November 22, 2007

2008 Predictions and Forecast

OK, it is still early. Next week is December, and in around five weeks 2008 would be around. I tried, over a cup of coffee, forecasting, what's going to happen in 2008. My general predictions,provided no big- untoward incidents in the world happen, are as follows:


1. People have been disappointed with the US dollar in 2007. The same would happen in 2008. US Dollar will continue to fall, until where? I don't know.

* this could mean the start of decoupling of US dollar from oil, riyal, etc., etc.
* this could mean people with lots of money will dump dollar denominated bonds, etc.
* this could mean forex traders will continue shorting the dollar etc.
* to mention a few of the many possible implications

2. Euro is going to hold more authority internationally that the previous years, probably replacing US dollars. But then the ECB will have to do something as they can't let the Euro go up and up.

3. Metals will continue its up movement. People will want oil to be priced in Euros, I guess. Oil will continue going up, but not more than 120 per barrel.

4. The Peso will continue moving up. More investments will go into Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, and other ASEAN countries. Australia will do great.

5. China will roar. Although, its economy is overheating - no crisis yet are in sight for 2008. The country will be the darling for investors in 2008, similar to 2007.


In the Philippines:

1. The Peso will reach 35 to 38 to the dollar by December 2008.
2. More OFWs will go abroad but will ask for higher salaries in dollar terms, many will return to the Philippines.
3. Chacha will be back, and opposed. No success in sight for Chacha. Instead, positioning for 2010 general elections will start mid of 2008.
4. The economy will continue improving, more investors will come in.
5. As usual the GMA administration will be accused of corruption from all sides. Indeed corruption will worsen in 2008.


This is all for now.