Monday, July 02, 2012

Peso- Dollar Exchange rates: going where this year?

Way back in 2005, I used to get 56K pesos whenever I exchange 1,000 US dollars even in some banks known to offer a lower exchange rates.

Recently, it is different! In fact it is going to be worse! Worse for OFWs who have US dollars earnings to be spent and sent back to the Philippines. Your 1,000 US dollars today would only fetch a little over 41K pesos!! Yes, and that is a loss of 15K pesos per 1K US dollars since 2005. And 15K pesos is a net monthly salary for many private/government employees.In fact, the exact rate today  7/1/2012 Sunday is 41.77982 PHP USD  rate.

Let us make our no brainer forecast again. In months ahead, and if you have read many of my posts on exchange rates and forex, particularity on peso-dollars rates; you would know that every time December approaches, influx of US dollars and other foreign currencies increases hugely that it causes a devaluation of a peso or two. This is because the country has the longest Christmas celebration that starts in October and ends in January, and it a common practice for family members working overseas to send money (savings included)  to family members and relatives in the Philippines.

It is also the time when shopping is at its peak as employes and workers would get their 13th month pays, bonuses, cash gifts, and many others. It is also the time when inflation artificially goes up.Usually, Peso- dollar exchange rates, including prices of commodities goes back to normal in January - but sometimes they don't!!

So.. exchange your dollars now while it can fetch 41.77982 PHP.


IMO, the government should really do something to control these rates and not just let the market decide.  This is not good for the economy. Our OFWs and their families (they are millions and comprises almost 12% of our workforce - and provides purchasing power to 20% more of the population in the country or approximately 32 million Filipinos) are losing purchasing power, in fact they have lost close to 30% purchasing power since 2005 as it is the rate of  Peso devaluation against the dollar.

Another is our manufacturers and exporters, literally since they are earning in dollars, have lost similar percentage in income as well since 2005.


Because of the Peso value getting stronger and stronger by the day, prices should go down particularly those that are imported overseas. Sadly - inflation rates - as the word/term implies- keep on inflating. 


I am wondering now - where this is going - and who is reaping the benefits of a lower exchange rates.


I refuse to believe that it can go down to 30's per dollar as many forecasters suggest as there is no real reason for it to happen.  Besides, there would be literally millions of Filipinos that would do people power for this not to happen.