Monday, September 29, 2008

Whats in it for the Philippines?

This blog is on speculation. We have been at it for years. We speculate on forex, gold, oil, the Peso. We talked about politics, and economy most of the time.

Alright. The news today, all over the wires is of FEAR. Consider this headlines:

Dow Loses 777 Points After Vote

For Stocks, Worst Single-Day Drop in Two Decades

Argentine stock market tumbles nearly 10 percent

Crude oil futures fell $9.13 to $97.76 a barrel. They have lost more than $20 since last Monday.

Palin’s Words Raise Red Flags (What if she become President months after they won?)

The governments of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg announced late Sunday a partial nationalization of the Belgian-Dutch financial conglomerate Fortis.

British Treasury confirmed Monday that it had seized the lender Bradford & Bingley - the third British bank to tumble this year - after no private buyers emerged.

In Germany, Hypo Real Estate shares slid 71.1 percent.

Shares of Dexia, a Brussels-based lender, tumbled 29.6 percent.

Icelandic government said that it had taken control of Glitnir, one of the largest lenders in the country, after it encountered liquidity difficulties.

More to come when the Asian Market open in around 5 hours. Expect the worst.


But whats in it for the Philippines?

- Crisis overseas is crisis for OFWs, I guess not those based in the Middle East?
- This could translates to high unemployment in the west, resulting in turn back of many OFWs overseas.
- This means lower remittances, our country is floating only because of the remittances, can we cope with a 1 billion a month reduced, to say 200M?
- far less investment because financing is going to be very expensive.
- companies are not going to invest
- we can expect a reduced demand for our exports, which means reduced inflow of money
- etc. etc. etc.

IMO, we can expect the worst.

So what can we do? I mean as tiny businessman, what will I do?

- You're guess about the Peso's direction is as good as mine - all bets are off for now, what range? I do not know - play safe.

- I'll bet on Gold. I'll hold on to my cash, and stay near a money changer, hahaha. I am serious.

- I' ll pay minimum to my outstanding loans, for now, and worry about the interests later.

- I am postponing my real state ventures, until the dusts settled. I will apply for a loan today while the market is still receptive.

- Pray. And make the best bets that you could on this turbulent times.

Good luck.