Tuesday, September 02, 2008

What happend to my US Dollar - Peso forecast?

In my July 4, 2008 post I said:

Pesos - Dollars forecast will cover July to September, 2008. The bold forecast is : the Peso will continue to weaken, and probably would breach 50 to 51 to the dollar.

This forecast was based on three factors:

1. Inflation data, June was bad. July will be worst.

This is now tamed somehow. Rice prices are back to normal, that is, May 2008 levels.

2. High oil prices.

This one have gone down to below 110 dollars per barrel today.

3. Political noise, and more protest in the coming weeks.

No protests were made. I thought people would fill the streets because of high inflation, and because of attempts to do Chacha again, and because of the BJE deal in Mindanao.


So? Shall we revise the forecast now?

No, I will still short the Peso until October 30.

On the news today from PDI:

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, the country’s central bank was selling dollars in the currency market to try to support the weakening peso, traders said Tuesday.

A trader in Manila said he suspected the central bank stepped into the market at P46.50 per dollar and continued to sell dollars at P46.60.

"Probably the next level to be tested is P46.65," said a second trader.