Friday, July 04, 2008

Pesos to US dollars forecast

Well...this Pesos - Dollars forecast will cover July to September, 2008.

The bold forecast is : the Peso will continue to weaken, and probably would breach 50 to 51 to the dollar.


1. Inflation data, June was bad. July will be worst.
2. High oil prices.
3. Political noise, and more protest in the coming weeks.


Hold on to your dollars until around November. Cash in again when December comes as OFWs will be sending another record amount of US dollars this Christmas.


On the news today, from PDI:

The peso slid to a new 10-month low of P45.70 to the dollar Friday before heavy central bank intervention pulled it back to P45.45 near the day's close.

Currency dealers said the market sold down the peso on reports that year-on-year inflation surged to a 14-year high of 11.4 percent in June.

But as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas unloaded dollars between P45.60 to P45.70, the market saw a good opportunity to lock in gains. As a result, the local currency closed slightly stronger than Thursday's P45.50 to the greenback.

The peso, now Asia's second worst performing currency next to the South Korean won, would have fallen deeper if not for BSP's dollar sales. Some traders estimated that the central bank accounted for as much as half of Friday's volume of $847.8 million at the Philippine Dealing System (PDS).


The Central Bank should be careful unloading dollars, they might get short...of its supply, hehehe.