Tuesday, May 27, 2008

I am taking TP on US Dollar

OK. I said take profit when the Peso reaches 43.5. I said it would be there soon.

On the news today:

The peso closed Tuesday at its intra-day low of 43.75 to the dollar, its weakest in six months, on lingering concerns on runaway crude oil prices.

Despite suspected intervention by the BSP, which was spotted unloading dollars to temper the peso’s fall, the peso shed another 0.17 from Monday’s closing rate of 43.58 to the greenback.


I am taking the sidelines for a few weeks. Enrollment is coming and my guess is more dollars would come in.

If indeed the driver for this rate is the crude prices in the world market - and some, or rather many say it could reach 200 dollars a barrel by year end, then the Peso could reach as low as, probably 47.5 to 48.0.

But prices at 200 dollars per barrel is extreme speculation, caution then is in order.

I will short Peso again by July to end of October and will reverse trade (long Peso) by November and December.

Making money with forex, particularly Peso - Dollar rates is so predictable it is no brainer.