Tuesday, February 26, 2008

What is the update on the Peso?

IN a few days, it will be March, and still the Peso held to 40 something. Today, the news indicated again the continued rise of the Peso and other ASEAN currencies:

Most Asian currencies rose versus the dollar on Tuesday, in tandem with stocks, as investors bought riskier assets on expectations that the fallout from credit woes could be contained.

The Indonesian rupiah briefly hit a four-month high at 9,055 per dollar, up almost 0.8 percent from late Asian trade on Monday.

The Philippine peso rose as far as 40.46 per dollar, up about 0.4 percent from Friday's close. The Philippine markets were closed on Monday for a holiday.

So, will the Peso really move up like last year? Others don't think so:

American investment banking giant Merrill Lynch expects the peso to pull back to 42.25 to the dollar in March but firm up at about 40 to the greenback by yearend.

In a forecast on global currencies dated Feb. 20, Merrill Lynch said it did not expect the peso, Asia’s best performer last year when it rose nearly 19 percent against the greenback, to rise past 40 to the dollar over the next two years.


My own prediction is that we will see a more stable Peso this year, it will just keep on moving 40 to 41 for the whole year.